“The Twilight Saga: New Moon” will likely launch past the $100 million mark, most experts predict. “Twilight” collected more than $69 million during its opening weekend a year ago, and the sequel has set records for pre-sales at online services. Fans decided in advance they were going to love Summit’s “New Moon,” so the film’s derisive 28 percent positive reviews at Rotten Tomatoes  are pretty much irrelevant.

My colleague Kyle Smith gives it 1.5 stars and hilariously quips that it “moves like the line at the post office.” Predictably, there isn’t much competition. The No. 2 and No. 3 slots are likely to go to holdovers: Sony’s “2012” (which may drop 50 percent to under $30M) and Disney’s “A Christmas Carol,” which has good legs after a soft opening. Fourth place will likely go to the strongest piece of counter-programming, Warners’ “The Blind Side.” Sandra Bullock’s third release of the year (after “The Proposal,” her biggest opening ever, and the reviled “All About Steve”) is expected to open in the mid-teens. I give this cross between a football movie and “Precious” with a happy ending three stars , and the rating at RT is the week’s best for a wide opener, 65. Fifth place appears to be a battle between the incumbent “Precious,” expanding again to 650 locations, and Sony’s animated “Planet 51,” which is rating a feeble 21 at RT with one star  from Mr. Smith. Tracking indicates both of them are headed for the low teens.